Tariffs, Gold Hikes and Export Woes: 2025 in Watches
In the second Vogue Business Watch Index, signs of a slowdown are emerging across the industry. 2024’s mixed financial performance saw estimated growth at Rolex, Cartier and Patek Philippe, alongside declines at most other brands. But growth halted in 2025. According to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, global Swiss watch exports fell 0.1% in the first half of the year, led by declines across Asia-Pacific and offset by growth in the US. However, recent gains in the US may be short-lived as new tariffs take effect. In August, the month after 39% tariffs were imposed on the Swiss market, exports to the US fell by a fifth. Brands that invested heavily in the region could be at risk.
Despite this slowdown, the 20 brands ranked in the Vogue Business Watch Index have seen little movement. The top three players — Cartier, Omega and Rolex — held their positions, while Tag Heuer broke into the top five, replacing Chopard. The biggest climbers were Patek Philippe (up five places to eighth) and Audemars Piguet (up five places to 12th). Meanwhile, Chopard, Jaeger-LeCoultre, Hublot and Breitling each slipped two positions.
Interestingly, market caution is yet to dampen consumer sentiment. Average purchase intent has risen 2% over the past year, driven largely by Audemars Piguet, Cartier and Zenith. Perceptions of brand heritage and design have increased alongside, suggesting that it’s the perception of value driving demand rather than cost itself. While some aspirational shoppers may be priced out, affluent buyers are proving more resilient, with 19% of watch consumers saying they would trade up for more expensive products in the case of price rises. Nonetheless, 22% said they would trade down for cheaper timepieces, highlighting the diverse behavior of watch consumers.
This resilience is partly driven by the high net worth of watch consumers. Of those surveyed, 19% reported household incomes over €300,000. Innovation is another area keeping consumers coming back. Novel collaborations across sport and culture have helped IWC climb the innovation ranks, while Cartier is seeing impact through its exhibition strategy. Rolex and Patek Philippe, meanwhile, defy the trend: both maintain strong consumer positioning despite limited innovation — respectively ranking first and fourth for consumer sentiment, versus 17th and 18th for innovation.
Digital marketing has become key to how watch brands amplify their cultural capital and cut through an ever noisier space. Beyond the Western celebrity circuit that has long dominated watch marketing, brands are investing in regional talent and reaping the engagement rewards. Over the past year, Tag Heuer has partnered with K-pop star San, while Montblanc has collaborated with Turkish actor Kerem Bürsin and Thai talent Suppasit Jongcheveevat (also known as Mew).
