All eyes on Indiana as ‘huge’ redistricting vote tests Trump’s influence

When President Trump wants something from Republicans, he usually gets them to fall in line.

But in Indiana, his grip is being tested.

Mr. Trump has demanded that the state adopt a new congressional map. While the state House has already signed off after months of pressure from Mr. Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance and Gov. Mike Braun, the GOP-controlled state Senate isn’t so sure.

The state Senate is expected to vote as early as Thursday, and no one can say with confidence how it will go.

Steve Bannon, a vocal Trump ally who served in his first administration, called the stakes huge.

He described the Indiana Senate vote as an “inflection point” in what he dubbed the broader “redistricting war.”

The uncertainty of what will happen in the state Senate speaks to a deeper divide inside the Indiana GOP.

Michael Wolf, a political science professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne, said the split comes down to two camps: Republicans who cut their teeth under former Gov. Mitch Daniels and are focused on conservative, state-level policy; and a newer Trump-inspired crowd —  including Mr. Braun — that is more eager to wade into polarizing national political fights and culture wars.

Mr. Wolf pointed to the 2024 Senate race, when Mr. Daniels toyed with a comeback but was quickly shoved aside as Republicans rallied around Jim Banks, a Trump‑backed firebrand. 

“That seemed like the final tilt to a national Republican takeover of the Indiana party,” he said. “Maybe this is the final tilt — or not.”

The stakes go beyond Indiana. Mr. Trump has been urging red states to redraw maps to lock in more GOP House seats in the midterms next year, sparking retaliatory efforts from Democrats in blue states. Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois warned this week that his state will not “stand idly by” if Indiana moves forward.

Democrats in Virginia and Maryland are also keeping tabs on Indiana, signaling they could feel forced to act.

The fight comes at a shaky moment for Mr. Trump. A series of election losses and sagging poll numbers have fed whispers that his political muscle isn’t what it used to be.

If enacted, the new Indiana map would all but guarantee Republicans control of all nine congressional seats, erasing the two districts now held by Democrats André Carson and Frank Mrvan, and dividing Indianapolis among four districts. 

All eyes are now on the state Senate, where the resistance lives. 

Senate leader Rodric Bray, whose family has deep roots in Indiana politics, embodies the old‑school lineage. 

He and other skeptics have questioned why Republicans are rushing to redraw congressional lines — approved just a few years ago — while leaving state legislative boundaries untouched. 

Mr. Trump has branded his opponents as RINOs, or Republicans in Name Only, and warned they’ll face primary challengers. 

Outside groups are echoing the threat, with Turning Point Action promising to spend “eight figures” in campaigns against holdouts.

Indiana has been Trump country before — he won the state by 19 points in 2024, and his 2016 primary victory there effectively ended the GOP race, putting him on a course to reshape the Republican Party in his image over the next decade.