Coffee Prices Fall on Abundant Rainfall in Brazil

September arabica coffee (KCU25) today is down -1.40 (-0.46%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU25) is down -11 (-0.30%).

Coffee prices today are moving lower as abundant rainfall in Brazil has eased dryness concerns and is positive for the country’s coffee crops.  Somar Meteorologia reported today that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing area, Minas Gerais, received 5 mm of rain during the week ended June 28, which is 714% of the historical average.

Coffee prices have retreated over the past two months, with arabica coffee posting a 6-3/4 month low last Friday.  The outlook for abundant coffee supplies is undercutting prices.  Last Wednesday, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-over-year (y/y) to 65 million bags and that Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee output will rise by 6.9% y/y to a 4-year high of 31 million bags.  Brazil is the world’s largest producer of arabica coffee, and Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee.

The advancing coffee harvest in Brazil is also weighing on coffee prices.  Last Tuesday, Brazil’s Cooxupe coffee co-op announced that its members reported the coffee harvest was only 24.3% complete as of June 20, compared with 34.2% completed at the same time last year.  Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest exporter of coffee.  Also, Safras & Mercado recently reported that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was 35% complete as of June 11, slightly behind last year’s comparable level of 37% but in line with the 5-year average of 35%.  The breakdown showed that 49% of the robusta harvest and 26% of the arabica harvest were complete as of June 11.  Brazil’s arabica harvest has been slowed by heavy rain in some areas.

Robusta coffee prices have received support from tightening supplies after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories fell to a 6-week low last Thursday at 5,108 lots.  However, in a bearish factor for arabica prices, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories rose to a 4-3/4 month high of 892,468 bags on May 27 and were modestly below that high at 844,319 bags as of last Friday.

Smaller coffee exports from Brazil are bullish for prices.  Last Wednesday, Cecafe reported that Brazil’s May green coffee exports fell by -36% y/y to 2.8 million bags.