Donald Trump trial verdict crucial to voters in new poll

A new poll released on Thursday found that if former President Donald Trump is found guilty in his Manhattan hush money trial, he will lose the popular vote to President Joe Biden.

Despite Trump facing four criminal indictments, all in which he pleaded not guilty, it remains a tight race in the polls between him and Biden, the Democratic incumbent. However, a conviction for Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, could paint a different picture.

Marquette Law School surveyed 902 registered voters nationwide from May 6 to May 15. When asking half of the poll sample if they would vote for Trump or Biden if Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, 43 percent chose Biden while only 39 percent said Trump.

However, when the other half of the sample was given the scenario of Trump being found not guilty, the ex-president is ahead by 6 points—44 percent said they’d vote for Trump and 38 percent for the president.

When reached by Newsweek, Biden’s campaign on Thursday declined comment. Newsweek also reached out to Trump’s team via email.

The popular vote may show which nominee America supports the most, but it does not win elections. The U.S. employs the Electoral College voting process in which every state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on population, and whichever nominee wins the majority—270 votes—gets elected president.

According to the poll, 65 percent of total respondents said they heard a lot about the trial while 28 percent heard a little and 7 percent heard nothing about it.

Trump’s trial, which began in April, is nearing the end, as closing arguments are slated for Tuesday. Soon enough, America will find out if Trump will become the first former U.S. president not only charged with a crime—but also convicted—or if he will get through his first criminal trial unscathed, at least in the legal sense.

Following an investigation by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg‘s office, Trump was indicted in March 2023 on 34 counts of falsifying business records to conceal hush money paid to adult-film star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 presidential campaign.

Daniels claims she had an affair with Trump in 2006, which he has denied. The former president has maintained his innocence and said the case against him, like his other three criminal indictments, is politically motivated.

According to a national YouGov/The Economist poll of U.S. adults conducted from May 19 to May 21, Trump is leading Biden by just one point (41 percent to 40 percent). There were 1,558 respondents and the poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.

Out of 1,782 respondents in the same poll, 45 percent said that Trump should be convicted of a crime in the hush money case, while 38 percent said he should not, and 17 percent were unsure.