Don’t Get Psyched Out! Trump Is an Evil Buffoon, Not an Evil Genius.

This does not bode well for MAGA world. I suspect that slowly, the polls are going to get a little worse for him. It will start to look, or maybe already does look, like Harris has distinct advantages in Michigan and Wisconsin; some recent polls are even suggesting that Pennsylvania is tilting in that direction. Mark Robinson’s web-surfing history has probably made Harris the slight favorite now in North Carolina. Florida is down to four points, and Texas, the perpetual white whale of Democratic dreams, is actually looking a little beige, at six. I wouldn’t bet today on Harris winning either of those, but the point here is that if they become part of the media narrative, that Florida and Texas are in any way up for grabs, it’s going to drive Trump nuts. Nutsier.

Look: Trump could obviously still win. We shouldn’t kid ourselves. His deportation plan is pretty popular. There are still things I think Harris needs to do. The “vibes” phase of the campaign was awesome, but it’s over (although the Oprah event was pretty vibe-y and seemed a success). She does need to do some media interviews, and then interviews with TikTokkers and YouTubers and such, who are more important now than the media.

I think she should also give a couple big policy speeches, of the sort candidates usually do early in the process—you know, laying out their foreign policy vision at Georgetown, that sort of thing. Her abbreviated campaign skipped that whole part. I think she needs a couple high-profile events like that—an economic vision speech at Michigan State University, a foreign policy vision speech at Duke. She has a ton of sizzle but still needs a little more steak.