Europe’s next chapter: EU enlargement report lists progress, setbacks

The European Commission presented its annual enlargement report on Tuesday, assessing the progress of states aspiring to join the European Union: Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Georgia, Kosovo, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, Turkey and Ukraine.

Of the ten membership hopefuls, two – Georgia and Turkey – are frozen in their accession tracks.

Leading the pack are Balkan countries Montenegro and Albania, while Ukraine and Moldova have made important strides after lodging their applications in 2022.

Montenegro says it wants to complete talks by the end of 2026, while Albania is pressing to wrap them up in 2027. Ukraine and Moldova are eyeing 2028.

European Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said 2026 will be a “moment of truth for all candidate countries,” stressing that a “united continent is the strongest response to those who seek to divide and destabilize Europe.”

So what are the prospects for the individual contenders? Here is an overview:

Montenegro and Albania: The frontrunner duo

The commission highlighted the rapid progress made by both countries.

Montenegro, which started membership talks in 2012, has demonstrated “a continued political commitment” and “has produced tangible results in accomplishing required reforms and moving the country forward on its EU accession path,” according to the report.

The document however highlights that the country’s democratic institutions remain fragile and vulnerable to political crises and potential institutional blockages.

According to the assessment, Montenegro needs to improve its track record in terms of criminal prosecutions and convictions in corruption cases, particularly at a high level, as well as overall judicial efficiency, including the reduction of case backlogs.

The commission found that Montenegro is moderately prepared regarding freedom of expression, having made some reform progress.

However, it said that Podgorica needs to keep implementing all media-related laws and further align them with EU benchmarks – pointing in particular to a stand-off regarding senior state media appointments.

The document also highlights that Montenegro’s visa policy is not fully aligned with that of the EU, stressing that Podgorica should terminate visa-free regime agreements with countries whose nationals require visas to enter the bloc.

The report on Albania, which has been a candidate country since 2014, notes significant progress in several areas such as justice reform, the fight against organized crime and Tirana’s commitment to European integration.

However, the commission stresses the need for further reform to Albania’s democratic system, for example regarding the fight against corruption and organized crime, as well as political polarization and institutional dialogue.

Ukraine and Moldova: Fast progress, tough reforms

The commission’s report said Ukraine must accelerate reforms if it is to meet its self-imposed goal of completing the EU accession process by the end of 2028.

The country “has continued to show remarkable resilience and strong commitment to its European path despite the escalation of Russia’s ongoing war of aggression,” it noted.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The attack revitalized long-stalled efforts to incorporate new members into the 27-nation bloc, an issue that Brussels now sees as a strategic priority in the face of the Kremlin’s aggression – even if not all member states are on the same page.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán on Tuesday to stop blocking Kiev’s bid to join the EU, as Brussels came out in favour of advancing the war-torn country to the next stage of negotiations, despite graft concerns.

Brussels warned against “backsliding” on anti-corruption efforts after Zelensky was forced to reverse moves curbing the independence of anti-graft agencies, amid discontent from Kiev’s European backers.

Moldova, meanwhile, “has continued to face unprecedented challenges as a result of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, attempts by Russia and its proxies to destabilize the country, and threats to its energy supply and security,” the commission said. “Despite this, Moldova has shown resilience and commitment to reforms.”

“Moldova has made the biggest one-year progress from all the candidates,” Kos said.

Serbia: Protests and anti-EU rhetoric bar progress

In its report, the commission found that Serbia’s implementation of reforms “has slowed down significantly,” amid increased polarization in Serbian society, with protests sweeping the country for a year following the collapse of a train station canopy that killed 16.

The commission pointed to an “anti-EU narrative evident not only in Serbian media outlets but also used by political office holders, including at highest levels.”

It urged Serbian authorities to “take much more responsibility for proactive and more objective communication on Serbia’s EU accession process and the EU, and for countering disinformation and information manipulation.”

However, the main takeaway for Foreign Minister Marko Đurić and parliamentary speaker Ana Brnabić was that Serbia is ready to open cluster 3 of the accession process – headlined ‘Competitiveness and Inclusive Growth’ – and has advanced in a number of areas.

“What I completely agree with – and it is indeed a criticism – is that we have slowed down with reforms,” Brnabić noted, adding that President Aleksandar Vučić had “called on all competent institutions to do everything they can to accelerate our reforms.”

“We must make an effort to change the narrative toward the EU and to have a much more positive – or at least much less critical – narrative,” she added.

The report also reviewed Kosovo, a potential EU candidate country, saying that despite “signalling its clear commitment to EU values,” it is experiencing a slowdown in the pace of reforms due to a political stalemate following last February’s elections.

Bosnia-Herzegovina: Road to stability

Despite political crises and slowed reforms in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the commission report highlights opportunities that could speed up the accession process.

It notes that political disagreements have hampered progress, delaying reforms – while pointing to tangible progress, notably in the alignment of legislation on data protection and border control, as well as the signing of an agreement with EU border protection agency Frontex.

The commission praised Bosnia for signalling its readiness to further align with EU standards, while highlighting outstanding judicial reforms as a key challenge.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc remains committed to Bosnia’s stability, noting that besides judicial reform, the appointment of a chief negotiator for proceedings with the EU remains key to further progress.

North Macedonia: Foreign policy alignment

The report stressed the need for North Macedonia to meet the initial benchmarks required to begin accession negotiations in earnest.

Skopje was praised, however, for maintaining good relations with other enlargement countries and for its engagement in regional initiatives.

The commission urged the country to “adopt the relevant constitutional changes” needed to advance, for example by “including in the Constitution citizens who live within the state borders and who are part of other peoples, such as Bulgarians.”

Sofia accuses North Macedonia of discriminating against ethnic Bulgarians, one of several flashpoints between the neighbours that have hampered Skopje’s accession process.

The commission said North Macedonia has actively engaged with the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans – a set of measures to encourage economic alignment – and has started to deliver on the plan’s four pillars: Gradual integration with the EU single market, regional economic integration, fundamental reforms and increased financial support.

By fully aligning with the EU’s foreign and security policy, including on Russia’s war on Ukraine, Skopje is “sending a strong signal of its strategic choice of EU accession and showing itself to be a reliable partner,” the report says.

Georgia and Turkey: Odd ones out?

The commission painted a grim picture of Georgia’s accession chances, as the Caucasus nation has cracked down on opponents and shifted towards Moscow.

“Georgia has no viable path to the EU at this stage unless conditions change dramatically. It is now a candidate country in name only,” Kos said.

Turkey is also noted for further backsliding on fundamental rights and rule-of-law standards.

“The increasing legal actions against opposition figures and parties, alongside multiple other arrests, raise serious concerns about Türkiye’s adherence to democratic values,” the commission said, using the country’s preferred name.

Accession negotiations “remain at a standstill since 2018,” it added.

What’s next for the EU hopefuls?

Joining the EU involves years of painstaking negotiations and major reforms, and countries can be delayed by many issues along the way. Even once a candidate country clears all negotiating hurdles, it still requires unanimous support from the EU’s existing member states.

As Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski put it: “EU membership is not an obligation but a free choice made by a country and its citizens.”

For the first time, the commission has now spelled out the need for future accession treaties to contain “stronger safeguards” against non-compliance with commitments made during accession negotiations, to “ensure that positive dynamics on the rule of law, democracy and fundamental rights are maintained.”

In the eyes of many observers, the EU has learnt a painful lesson as countries such as Hungary have stymied the bloc’s operations while backtracking on the rule of law.

The content of this article is based on reporting by AFP, Agerpres, ATA, ANSA, BTA, dpa, FENA, MIA, MINA, PAP, STA and Tanjug as part of the European Newsroom (enr) project.