Harris now set for narrow win: Forecaster who predicted Trump landslide

Kamala Harris is predicted to win the 2024 election by the same forecaster that called Donald Trump‘s 2016 victory.

According to The Virtual Tout, the prediction market of Northwestern University data scientist Thomas Miller, the Harris-Tim Walz ticket is forecast to win 301 electoral votes on November 5, while the Trump-JD Vance campaign is predicted to gain 237.

Miller, who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016, has been changing between predicting a Trump and Harris landslide, with his latest prediction placing the Democrat as the next president.

In September, Miller predicted that Harris would win against Trump, but only a few days ago on October 30, he forecast a 345 Electoral College win for the Republican nominee.

In a November 2 update, The Virtual Tout website wrote “We have seen especially high trading volume and volatility in the past week.”

Perhaps explaining the sudden change in prediction only a few days apart, the update added that November 2 “experienced the highest trading volume of the 2024 election, with 274 thousand shares traded on contracts for the two major parties.”

Newsweek has contacted Miller and the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment.

Miller is using PredictIt, the largest U.S. political betting site, to gauge the contest between the two candidates.

He previously told Newsweek, “I don’t rely on polls. I rely on prediction markets. A political prediction market is a leading indicator of what will happen in an election. People are putting their money down, which means they believe something’s going to happen in the future.”

The Virtual Tout has also noted on its website that prediction markets “have a Republican bias.”

It added, “We assessed the degree of Republican bias in 2020, and we currently correct for that degree of bias. What is uncertain, however, is the degree of Republican bias in the prediction markets of 2024. Further study of prediction market prices may provide answers.”

Other prediction markets, like Predictlt, have also forecast a Harris win, but Trump remained ahead on Polymarket as of Saturday morning.

Kalshi gave Trump a 64-percent chance of victory at 9 p.m. ET on October 29, against 36 percent for Harris, although, as of 8 a.m. ET on Friday, Trump’s chances had declined to 56 percent, against 44 percent for Harris.

According to the polling aggregates, the election remains a very close race, making Election Day forecasts a complete toss-up.

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