How the Democrats Lost the Election

The Donald Trump of 2024 is more diminished, paranoid, and extreme than the one who won a presidential campaign built on “locking up” his political opponents and demonizing immigrants eight years ago. And yet his hold on the electorate is arguably stronger than ever. Trump’s support is strongest with those who believe that the American political and economic system has failed, that its politicians are craven and corrupt, and that the only path forward is to destroy that system and reject those politicians. A message built around the threat that he poses to that system without a credible alternative is clearly not enough. Continuously reminding voters of the myriad ways in which he is aberrant and dangerous, moreover, may even have backfired. These appeals only bolster Trump’s core message, which is that he is both different from other politicians and stronger than them: He—and he alone—can bring about true change.

As shocking and depressing as Trump’s victory is, it is less surprising when one considers the incumbent president. Joe Biden: A wildly unpopular figure who many see as doddering and fundamentally incapable of doing the job of the presidency. Long before Biden’s disastrous performance in his late-June debate with Trump, it was obvious that most voters had concluded that his presidency was a failure. Biden’s successes—his legislative accomplishments, his management of inflation and the post-pandemic recovery, and his role in expanding NATO—didn’t register with voters, either because they were things most people don’t care about or because Biden’s increasing inability to effectively communicate hindered his ability to sell his ideas. What is clear, however, is that he was blamed for things he had little control over: rising prices, global conflict, continued political dysfunction. Voters had little faith in his ability to manage the economy (where he actually did a good job) and foreign affairs (where he markedly did not).

Much will be made in the coming days of the campaign that Kamala Harris has run since she became the Democratic Party’s nominee in mid-July. Her theory of the election, in which white, suburban voters would carry her to victory, was clearly wrong—her decision to campaign heavily with the deeply unpopular Liz Cheney convinced no one and likely backfired, alienating progressives and bolstering her connection to a political establishment that many voters of both parties detest.