Hurricane Milton spaghetti models as storm approaches Florida

Tropical Storm Milton is expected to make landfall as a hurricane in Florida this week, as the state continues to recover from Hurricane Helene.

The storm formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and there is a Hurricane Watch in effect for Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula coastline from Celestún to Cabo Catoche. The cone of uncertainty, which represents the most probable track of the storm, shows Milton reaching Florida’s west coast on Wednesday evening, according to The Weather Channel. Newsweek reached out to the National Weather Service via email.

Two weeks ago, Hurricane Helene struck Florida and several other states in the U.S. Southeast. Milton is expected to reach wind speeds of 115 mph when it reaches Florida’s coast, which would classify it as on the lower end of a Category 3 hurricane, per The Weather Channel’s forecast.

Various spaghetti models published by the channel, which track the possible projected paths that the storm could take, show Milton traversing different areas of Florida. One path shows it going through Tampa, while another shows it over Savannah.

While the forecasts vary widely, the most likely path would see Milton making landfall in or near the Tampa Bay area, forecasters said.

The National Hurricane Center said that Milton was “moving erratically eastward” and is likely to become a major hurricane later today.

The agency said in an update on 11 p.m. EDT on Sunday that “there is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday.”

The agency reminded people not to focus on the details of the forecast at the present as “there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton.”

It added that Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches for parts of Florida’s west coast will likely be issued early Monday.

The NHC added that heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida from Monday, well ahead of Milton making landfall, with increased rainfall linked to the storm bringing risks of flooding in the coming days. There is a Flood Watch in place for all of South Florida.

Florida is preparing for what could be the state’s largest evacuation in seven years. A mandatory evacuation order has been issued for the island Fort Myers Beach, and other state municipalities are also issuing evacuation orders.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis warned residents to prepare for potential “major impact” in a briefing on Sunday, and told those on the state’s west coast to assume they will be told to evacuate.

“You do not have to get in the car and drive 500 miles,” DeSantis said. “You are going to be able to have places to evacuate within your own counties.”