In charts: can Kemi Badenoch stop Tory voters fleeing to Reform UK?

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Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch will say she is increasingly convinced of the need to quit the European Convention on Human Rights, as she hardens her immigration stance in the face of falling support for her once-governing party. 

Badenoch — who defended the UK’s membership when running for Tory leader last year — now believes the convention is almost impossible to reform and stops governments from robustly tackling immigration. 

“I am increasingly of the view that we will need to leave [the ECHR],” Badenoch will say. “I am yet to see a clear and coherent route to change within our current legal structures.”

Her speech comes as the Tories leak support to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which now tops the polls and is seen as taking a tougher line on immigration. Recent polls put the Conservatives fourth behind Reform — whose party chair Zia Yusuf resigned on Thursday — Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

Voters on the right believe migration is one of the most important issues facing the UK, but trust in the Conservative party’s ability to tackle it lies in tatters.

Just 6 per cent of the public believe the Conservatives would be the best party to handle asylum and immigration, compared with 37 per cent for Reform, according to polling by YouGov. Even voters who backed the Conservatives at the most recent election favour Reform on migration.

For voters, that has contributed to the Conservatives polling at just 18 per cent on average, even lower than the 24 per cent they scraped in last year’s general election defeat, which left the Labour party with a historic majority.

Badenoch will stop short of announcing an immediate policy shift on the ECHR on Friday but has set up five tests for her shadow attorney-general to examine, from the ability to deport irregular migrants under the ECHR to protecting military veterans from lawsuits. She will promise to reach a decision by the party’s conference in early October.

With bookmakers lengthening the odds of Badenoch still being Conservative leader in a year’s time, the conference may represent her last chance for a full reset that can show some progress in winning back voters.

Badenoch’s defeated leadership rival Robert Jenrick — who has long called for the UK to quit the ECHR — has remained prominent since losing to her, regularly posting videos of himself that go on to be widely circulated.

These cover topics ranging from people who push through ticket barriers on the London underground to the legal career of Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s attorney-general, Richard Hermer.

From the Conservatives’ high-water mark in the polls following Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019 — an election in which Farage’s vehicle the Brexit Party did not stand candidates against some Tories — a steady flow of voters have peeled away to Reform. This process has only accelerated since last year’s election.

One quarter of 2019 Conservative voters switched to Reform at the 2024 election, and a further third of 2024 Conservative voters have switched since then, according to an FT analysis of data from YouGov and the British Election Study.

A majority of Reform supporters now view the Conservatives as an explicitly pro-immigration party, according to YouGov. The charge is difficult for Badenoch to deny. Annual net migration soared to 900,000 under Rishi Sunak’s tenure in 2023, far above the promise of “tens of thousands” made by David Cameron when the party entered government in 2010.

Labour’s own slide in popularity would normally offer the Conservatives some comfort.

In previous election cycles, the unpopularity of the Labour government would directly benefit the opposition Tories in the polls. Instead it has been Reform that has picked up most support at Labour’s expense.

Farage’s party swept last month’s local elections — taking control of 10 councils, including areas previously dominated by both Tories and Labour.

Voters have noticed that Farage, not Badenoch, is the most prominent figure challenging the government on migration, benefits and tax. A poll by YouGov showed just 3 per cent of voters believe the Conservatives are doing the most to set the political agenda, behind Labour on 19 per cent and Reform on 33 per cent.

The last bastion of Conservative support is the elderly. Over-75s are the only remaining age group where the Tories still lead in the polls — though even here, Reform is close behind.

For decades, the Tory vote has become ever more concentrated among pensioners — with the age of their median supporter rising to 66 at the most recent election, according to More in Common.

While older voters reliably turn out on election days, the Conservative party’s dependence on them poses a serious problem. More in Common calculated that based on current life expectancies, about 10 per cent of 2024 Conservative voters would be dead by 2029 when the next election is due.

By contrast, Reform performs relatively well among middle-aged and younger voters. Farage’s reach on TikTok and other social media dwarfs that for any Tory politician, driving support with the young. According to More in Common polling, 22 per cent of 18- to 24-year-olds support Reform, triple the level for the Conservatives.

Mel Stride, the Conservative shadow chancellor, on Thursday said Badenoch would get “better over time”.

“She will get better through time at the media, she will get better in time through the despatch box at PMQs,” he said.

“Just as Margaret Thatcher when she became leader in [19]75 was often criticised for everything from her hair, to the clothes she wore, to the pitch of her voice, to heaven knows what else, in the end she got it together. And Kemi will do absolutely that.”