Is this next election cycle our last chance to save Israel’s future?

POLITICAL AFFAIRS: Professor Dan Ben-David, a leading economist, warns that Israel’s future depends on urgent education reforms, with the next election potentially its last chance.

‘We might not get another chance to turn this train crash around. Political leaders, especially the opposition, this is your chance,” Prof. Dan Ben-David, one of Israel’s leading economists and the founder and head of the Shoresh Institution, told The Jerusalem Post in an interview this week, as Shoresh celebrates its 10th anniversary.

Shoresh is an independent, nonpartisan research institute providing data-driven analysis to help shape Israel’s long-term strategic vision.

“My perspective is that as bad as things are, and as worse as they’re getting, it’s actually creating the biggest opportunity Israel ever had to fix things,” Ben-David said.

When asked whether that requires vision and leadership, he responded, “It does. I didn’t say I’m optimistic. I said it’s the biggest opportunity. I’ve been at this since 1999, for 26 years now, and the things that we need to do are so big.”

Ben-David’s warning is both urgent and sobering. The demographic and structural forces shaping Israel’s trajectory, he said, have led directly to the crisis the country faces today. At the heart of the problem lies the education system and the growing share of the population, particularly among the ultra-Orthodox (haredim), that is not participating in the modern economy.

“Israel always takes care of things at the final, last moment,” he said, which is not something that can be done right now.”

Currently, the haredim make up only 6% of Israel’s 50-year-olds. But among children aged zero to four, they already constitute 26% of the population. “It’s not even a projection into the future,” Ben-David said. “They’ve been born; tomorrow they’re in school.

“What do we do with them? If we don’t give them the education that they need, when they’re adults, it’ll be too late for them. This is a group that’s doubling its share in the population every 25 years; it’s exponential.”

Still, he said, “There has been an awakening here that something is definitely wrong, that the track we’re on is unsustainable.”

The anti-conscription protests held last week, for example, can be seen as evidence of the deep disconnect between parts of Israeli society and the country’s broader reality.

“They’re brainwashing their children – these kids that go out in the streets have no clue what they’re talking about,” he said. “And the audacity, the chutzpah, in a year where we’ve actually suffered tens of thousands of people killed or wounded – where are you coming from? Who’s telling you this? And why are we enabling the people who are telling you this to keep running your schools?”

The next elections, he believes, could yield the leadership capable of fixing what needs fixing. “Immediately after the elections, or this opportunity will pass us by,” he warned. “Because the public consensus of needing to do something will die down once the war is behind us, and all the issues will be kicked down the road again.”

First prong: Education

Israel “has the worst education system in the developed world, and the haredim are not even the reason for it,” Ben-David said.

The core issue, he explained, lies in the lack of quality in fundamental subjects: math, science, and reading. Data compiled and presented by the Shoresh Institution show that, for the past 20 years, Israel has scored below most OECD countries in PISA scores – the Program for International Student Assessment, a large-scale global study run by the OECD every three years, testing reading, math, and science.

“We are below everybody – all the relevant countries,” he said. “This exam is how each country is preparing its children to compete with one another when they grow up in a very competitive global economy. We’re just not doing it.”

Haredi elementary schools do not teach these core subjects at all, and the Arab-Israeli education system faces its own crisis: “Their schools scored below three of the six Arab countries tested,” Ben-David said.

“In general, we’re talking about an education system that has to be fixed. A situation where roughly half the kids in Israel today are getting a third-world education…. That makes the future unsustainable to maintain a first-world economy.

“Economic studies, including our own at the macro- and micro-level, show that there’s a very strong relationship – a high correlation – between the level of education in core subjects and economic growth.”

Data also show that wages rise with studies that include STEM combinations. “These kinds of studies can help direct leadership to focus education on what can make the futures of the students better in terms of living standards,” he said.

“From a national perspective, we already know what policies we need: fix the education system, overhaul the entire thing. It’s got to, from the start, determine a much higher level core curriculum.”

He added, “We have some of the best universities in the world; we don’t have to import them from anywhere. We need to take it down from the high level outside of schools and bring it down to the schools.”

The only way this will work, though, is if it is applied across the board – in haredi schools as well. “No more games; everyone has to have that opportunity in life.”

At present, the state is “just throwing money at the problem rather than understanding what the core issues are.”

Those who argue that Israel’s national security is separate from its educational and economic future, Ben-David warned, “are missing the links.” When today’s minority children, who are not getting the education they deserve, “become half the adults – and eventually a majority of adults – they will only be able to maintain a third-world economy.

“And that means we will no longer have first-world healthcare or welfare; we won’t have a first-world army. We won’t be able to do the things that we need to do to defend ourselves.”

During the Israel-Hamas War, Israel achieved remarkable technological feats on the battlefield. “But if we don’t raise a generation that will know how to do what they need to do,” he warned, “Israel’s defense will be down.

“If we don’t get our act together,” he added, “the defense mechanism, at some point, just won’t be there anymore.”

The next election cycle, therefore, is crucial. “If a critical mass of the creative, contributing group in the workforce decides there’s no future here and leaves – it’s only downhill from there,” Ben-David said.

Politicians, new and old, must understand that “this is unsustainable. It means our children and grandchildren are not going to remain alive here in 20 to 30 years if we continue down this road. We need to fix this.”

Fixing the state of education in Israel will lay the foundation. What comes next is there to lock it in.

Second prong: Budget

The issue of education is social, but it is also budgetary and intentional. Once the funds are directed in a smarter way, we can start to see real change.

Israel’s budget, Ben-David said, “is in a dire place right now.” Tens of thousands of lives were shattered by the war; the North and South need rebuilding, and there’s little left for sectoral needs, including upholding the haredi lifestyle through public subsidies.

Third prong: Electoral system

“What Israel has suffered from, in all accounts, is an overall crash in government efficiency, preparedness, and productivity,” Ben-David said.

His proposal includes creating “a real balance of power between the three branches of government – checks and balances, where ministers know what their ministries are doing.

“We don’t have to invent the wheel,” he added. “We have some of the best political scientists in the world. Find a solution – and enforce it.”

Fourth prong: Constitution

But even if the next government, by some miracle, adheres to these goals, they could be undone within a few years by the next coalition.

Ben-David’s proposal is an oft-repeated one: a constitution, to “nail this thing down in law.”

Since its founding in 1948, Israel has never adopted a formal written constitution, despite it being promised in the Declaration of Independence. Early efforts stalled in 1950 when political and religious divisions over Judaism’s role in state law led to a resolution deferring the constitution’s drafting.

Instead, the Knesset began passing “Basic Laws,” intended as piecemeal chapters of a future constitution. Over time, these Basic Laws have taken on quasi-constitutional status, interpreted by the Supreme Court as Israel’s higher law. Yet the vision of a single, unified constitution remains unfulfilled – blocked by enduring disputes over religion and state, minority rights, and the definition of Israel as both Jewish and democratic.

“We have some of the best constitutional scholars in the world,” Ben-David said. “Find something that will work for both the Right and the Left – that is a shared responsibility and goal; put it on the map.”

Politicians must “explain to people that we’ll never have this opportunity again,” and present a comprehensive plan for repair. A constitution, he said, would “ensure that the next government won’t overturn the entire reform.

“The only way to fix that,” he added, “is to change the rules of the game – to make it a whole new game in a way that is democratic.”

The point of this plan, he said, is “to safeguard education for the next 30 years, so that the next generation can be okay.

“If things continue as they are now, the guaranteed majority will make sure that things [do not change for the better]. Include a lot more people so they have a vested stake in what’s happening in Israel – that they feel a part of this. That’s what education is meant to do.

“We need more people to be asking questions, to be asking leadership why things are this way and not another way. It’s for everyone’s benefit – especially when, from a sectoral perspective, you’re going to have way more haredim in the next few decades. If they are not in the army and not in the workforce – what then? Who’s going to work? Who’s going to defend us?”

Politically, the balance is fragile. “You don’t need a majority to not be able to do anything,” Ben-David said. “All you need is enough people voting for parties that prevent change. There’s a demographic democratic point of no return. Once we pass it, I don’t think these changes will ever be possible again. That’s the importance of these elections.

“Israel is a small country,” he added. “We cannot create everything we need; every country exports and imports.” Israel’s dependence on other developed countries for trade is vital in so many different spheres. We cannot go it alone; we cannot build our own fighter jets. We have to have good relationships with normative, liberal democratic countries. Which means we need to be like them, so they have a kinship with us.

“This has been felt across sectors, culture, sports, travel, academia,” he said. “We may have already lost a good chunk of our future academics,” as the academic cold shoulder takes hold. Researchers are facing challenges getting their work published in top journals. This especially affects young scholars.

“It’s no longer Right versus Left,” Ben-David concluded. “We have to put that on hold for a bit and fix the root problems in Israel.”

How did we get here?

In the early years of the state, Israel experienced incredible growth – until, about 50 years ago, when it changed its priorities and its budget.

“Israel started as a very poor country that didn’t even know if it would be alive after all the wars it endured,” Ben-David said. “And yet, it built towns and roads and universities – seven by the beginning of the ’70s. Those were national priorities.

“We were building, though we had no money. The money went to the people – that’s what was important. The founding fathers of Israel knew they had very limited degrees of freedom, almost no foreign exchange. They had to focus on what builds a country: human capital, infrastructure, and education.”

That focus, he said, has eroded. “Even though we have fewer vehicles per capita, our infrastructure is worse because we stopped investing.

“So what happened? We just let it go. In recent years, we started again – but too little, too late.”

Data show that national priorities shifted in the 1970s, reflected in the budget, toward political and sectoral spending.

“With the nation traumatized, split apart, and in dire need of recovery,” he said, “bold political leadership is necessary for survival – to see past the divides and secure Israel’s future.”