Israel’s haredi draft crisis: Court ruling and political stalemate reach breaking point

Israel’s haredi draft crisis intensifies as court ruling forces action, while political divisions and protests make it difficult to see a path forward.

For months, the coalition’s showdown over haredi (ultra-Orthodox) enlistment unfolded like a drama with no final act – all buildup, no climax, and plenty of stalling.

Then came Wednesday, when two developments, one from within the haredi world and one from the High Court of Justice, collided to signal that the era of delay is ending and the crisis is hitting zero hour yet again.

The day began with the Lithuanian rabbinic leadership finally breaking its silence about the controversial haredi conscription bill that has stalled in the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

After weeks of internal debate and growing pressure, Rabbis Dov Lando and Moshe Hillel Hirsch issued what can best be described as “a pale green light.”

They authorized Degel Hatorah’s MKs to resume discussions in the committee on what has become known as “the Bismuth draft law,” but they withheld approval of the law itself.

They did not endorse any of its provisions. They did not instruct the faction to support it in the plenum. They simply permitted “discussion.”

The timing and phrasing were intentional. This was a gesture toward the coalition, not a commitment.

It was a signal that negotiations could continue, not that haredi leadership was ready to climb down from its long-held insistence that full-time yeshiva students must remain exempt.

It was a way of keeping the door open while ensuring the final decision remained in the rabbis’ hands.

But that cautious gesture – the first sign of movement on the bill in weeks – triggered an immediate response within the coalition itself.

Within minutes of the announcement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered Boaz Bismuth, the committee chair, not to advance the bill.

The reason was obvious: Netanyahu feared walking into a political trap.

Prime Minister Netanyahu risked pushing forward a law without UTJ backing

Without explicit backing from the United Torah Judaism leadership, the prime minister risked pushing forward a law that the haredim themselves might abandon at the last moment, leaving him exposed to anger over a bill that much of the public opposes as not going nearly far enough.

Worse yet, the haredim could still vote against the final version if they decided the sanctions were too harsh, meaning Netanyahu could be left holding a law that offered the public only minimal change and still cost him the coalition.

Netanyahu has made clear that he will not move the legislation forward without a firm commitment of political support. He wants a guarantee, not a rabbinic signal of “permission to discuss.”

And such a commitment is far from assured, given the internal divisions inside Agudat Yisrael and within parts of the haredi world, the eruption of haredi street protests, and the radicalized atmosphere, including intermittent acts of violence against haredi politicians.

If Netanyahu hoped that the rabbis’ statement would buy him some time, he soon found out that time on this issue was no longer on his side.

Because only a few hours after the rabbinic announcement,the High Court of Justice issued what could prove to be one of the most consequential decisions in years in the never-ending legal battle over haredi conscription.

In a sharply worded, unanimous ruling by Supreme Court Deputy Chief Justice Noam Sohlberg and four other justices, the High Court demanded that the government do what it has resisted for decades: enforce the law on haredi draft evasion.

The ruling declared that the state must pursue real criminal proceedings against haredi draft evaders, end all benefits linked to draft evasion, and, within 45 days, produce a concrete, effective, and professionally grounded enforcement policy.

Since the exemption law expired in June 2023, there is no longer any legal basis for blanket yeshiva deferments.

In principle, haredi men who are not in service or are individually exempted are now in violation of existing law.

The judges emphasized that the state must quickly reach a point where its criminal enforcement rate against haredi evaders is no lower than the rate applied to all other groups – a seismic shift given the near-nonexistent enforcement of recent years.

This decision leaves no practical room to recreate the elaborate bypass channels that previous governments used to maintain the yeshiva funding system. If a policy enables circumvention – whether through indirect stipends, creative budget transfers, or administrative “filters” – it fails the High Court’s test.

Taken together, the message was unmistakable: The era of symbolic laws, loopholes, and non-enforcement is over. The state must act – not someday, not in theory, but now.

This puts the coalition in an impossible position. On the one hand, advancing a law that meets the High Court’s standard would require sanctions and enforcement measures that the haredi parties have rejected for years.

On the other hand, advancing a law that meets the ultra-Orthodox parties’ demands would almost certainly be struck down again, thrusting Israel back into a constitutional crisis at a time when public patience – and reservists’ stamina – is nearing its limits.

Pressure is also mounting inside the haredi community itself, and not only from the political leadership.

In recent weeks, the crisis has spilled into the streets in the form of angry demonstrations by extremist factions who oppose any compromise on enlistment.

That tension boiled over when Shas MK Yoav Ben-Tzur’s car was attacked on Saturday night by haredi protesters, enraged that Shas was considering agreeing to advance the proposed law.

Windows were smashed; trash was thrown; the scene captured the growing radicalism among groups convinced that even discussing enlistment is a betrayal of principles.

This radicalism matters because it limits the rabbis’ freedom to maneuver.

Leaders not prone in any event to show great flexibility cannot strike compromises if they fear that their own constituents – not secular Israelis, not the High Court, not the opposition, but their own community – will turn on them.

All of this unfolds even as the Bismuth draft itself faces deep structural problems.

The bill’s enlistment targets are minimal, its sanctions weak and riddled with loopholes, and its definition of “haredi” far too liberal.

Facing a shortfall of 10,000-20,000 combat soldiers, the IDF has already testified that the bill does not meet operational needs and relies mainly on recruits who will not serve in combat roles.

In short, Israel faces a draft bill that cannot meet the High Court’s standard nor the army’s needs, and will satisfy neither the haredi leadership nor the general public.

One way or another, it now seems, the era of forever kicking this issue down the road is coming to an end.