Lebanese fear collapse of ‘fragile’ Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire

One month after the ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel came into force, there is growing concern in Lebanon about its possible collapse.

“We are sitting on a time bomb: We do not know when it will explode again,” a Lebanese government source told dpa.

In late November, the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia and Israel agreed to a ceasefire after more than a year of attacks from both sides. While the ceasefire is largely holding, sporadic violations have occurred, some resulting in fatalities.

“Preventing civilians from returning to their homes in certain areas in southern Lebanon is raising our concerns that Israel is not respecting all the aspects of the ceasefire,” said another government source, who is close to Hezbollah.

The Lebanese Army said on Thursday that Israel made an incursion into the southern areas of al-Qantara, Adsheet al-Qusayr and Wadi al-Hujeir in violation of the ceasefire agreement.

The army said it has since reinforced its deployment in the aforementioned areas while continuing to follow up on the situation in coordination with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL).

Hezbollah lawmaker Ali Fayyad decried the incursion in a statement as an “extremely dangerous” development that poses “a serious risk.”

Makram Rabbah, a political analyst and outspoken critic of Hezbollah, told dpa: “What is happening is not a breach of the ceasefire but an implementation of the ceasefire which gave Israel the right to go after any attempt to re-arm Hezbollah.”

Since the ceasefire was instated on November 27, the total number of Israeli violations has risen to more than 259, a Lebanese security source said.

As part of the agreement, Hezbollah is to withdraw to positions north of the Litani River, approximately 30 kilometres from the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Meanwhile, Israel has committed to a phased withdrawal of its ground troops from Lebanon, which is expected to be completed within 60 days. The Lebanese Army is to oversee the implementation and enforcement of the agreement.

Riad Kahwaji, the founder of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, told dpa that Israel is taking advantage of the situation because it knows that Hezbollah has been dealt a significant blow.

He said the international community is turning a blind eye to the violations Israel is carrying out because no one wants Hezbollah to rebuild its arsenal.

Kahwaji said this is the case “as long as Hezbollah is not responding to the violations,” adding that he thinks it is unlikely it will because it knows “this would unleash a massive response” against it.