Map shows “better organized” tropical disturbance in Atlantic

The National Weather Service (NWS) is concerned by a system developing in the eastern Atlantic that has “become better organized” during the past few days.

There are two weather developments in the Atlantic Ocean under watch by forecasters. The first, dubbed AL94, is in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and producing “widespread but disorganized” thunderstorms as it moves westward at 25 mph, according to a weather outlook from NWS senior forecaster Eric Blake. Forecasters said AL94 has a 20 percent chance of developing a cyclone over the next week.

The second system, AL95, was last seen by satellite images several hundred miles southwest of Cabo Verde in Africa. Blake wrote in his outlook report Wednesday that AL95 “has become better organized since [Tuesday] with a more concentrated area of thunderstorms” and has the chance to develop into a tropical storm by the weekend.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be unusually conducive for late June across the central and western tropical Atlantic, and further development of this system is anticipated,” read the weather outlook. “A tropical depression or tropical storm could form this weekend several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.”

The NWS says there’s a 60 percent chance of a cyclone forming from AL95 over the next seven days.

According to a report from The Weather Channel, forecast models suggest that AL95 will encounter less wind shear than usual as it moves west, which meteorologists called a typical “nemesis” of tropical storms.

“If it can also avoid ingesting too much dry, sinking, dust-laden air from the Sahara Desert, it could develop into at least a tropical depression as soon as later this week before it arrives in the Lesser Antilles later Sunday or Monday,” read The Weather Channel’s report.

Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting an above-average hurricane season in 2024. Forecasters are anticipating from 17 to 25 named storms, the agency’s highest preseason prediction to date.

From eight to 13 of those storms are expected to turn into hurricanes, and four to seven are expected to be major hurricanes, or a hurricane classified as at least a category 3.

The increase in storm activity is partially due to a “marine heat wave” expected to cause near-record temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean this season, according to NOAA predictions.