MLB Picks: Three best sides bets for Tuesday (June 25)

It was a 1-1-1 showing last night in the MLB sides streets, and today’s matchups look ripe for the picking, starting in San Diego …

Play 1: San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals — Nationals moneyline (+104) FanDuel

This is a story about regression to the mean for Nationals lefty MacKenzie Gore.

He’s been pitching lovely of late, with a .111 ISO against this year and a respectable .323 wOBA. He’s striking out batters at a 28% clip and walking them at a 7.2% rate. His hard hit rate is a teeny 26.5%, and he’s only getting barreled at a 6.4% clip. He’s pitching so good, his xFIP is 3.27, 15th best in the majors.

These are very strong numbers.

The problem? Gore has been BABIP’d to hell and back. Despite giving up hardly any hard hits, opposing batters are walloping Gore to the tune of .376(!), the highest — by a lot — in the majors. Zach Littell of the Rays is next in line at .347.

Clearly, Gore is due for some serious regression to the mean when it comes to batted balls, and there’s no reason to think it can’t start tonight against the Fernando Tatis Jr.-less San Diego Padres.

Sure, the Padres, even without Tatis, are capable of putting up runs, but Gore has been good — and unlucky — enough to warrant a tapping of the brakes on the Padres offense.

On the other side of the ball, the Nationals will be facing off against rookie Adam Mazur, who has struggled with control in the minors and is really — really — struggling with control in the majors. He’s faced 83 batters so far this year, and has walked nearly 20% of them. Meanwhile, he’s only struck out 13% of batters.

In short: The Nationals could easily string together a few walks and a few well-timed hits to chase Mazur and give Gore enough room to work with.

Compounding the issues for Mazur is the somewhat surprisingly tough top half of the Nats lineup, with CJ Abrams, Lane Thomas, Eddie Rosario, and Jesse Winkler all sporting ISOs north of .158 against righties this year.

So yes. The Nationals at plus-money sure looks like the right side of the game tonight.

Play 2: Oakland A’s vs. Los Angeles Angels — A’s moneyline (+105) ESPN BET

The first, and probably most important question for this game tonight: Is Mitch Spence actually pretty good?

The former long reliever-turned starter is 26, is seeing his first big league action this year, and is more or less thriving. Not a big strikeout or walk guy (19.5% and 5.9%, respectively), Spence gets by on a cutter-sinker-slider trio of pitches that gets a lot of ground balls (nearly 50%) and not a lot of hard contact (29.3%).

Tonight, he gets the benefit of pitching at home to an Angels lineup that plays right into his strengths. The expected lineup puts the ball on the ground over 42% of the time. In short: It’s a ground ball pitcher facing a ground ball hitting team. And even if he gives up some fly balls, the not-friendly confines of the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum will help to keep the ball from sailing into the stands.

Spence sets up exceedingly well tonight.

On the other hand, Angels’ starter Tyler Anderson looks like he no longer has it.

The lefty is striking out 16% of batters while walking 10%, isn’t getting ground balls, and while the ISO and wOBA against numbers look good, the underlying stats — a near 10% barrel rate, a .224 BABIP, and a 35.3% hard hit rate — make it appear negative regression is headed in Anderson’s direction.

As for the A’s lineup tonight? There are some lefty mashers, with Phil Nevin and Brent Rooker sporting ISOs north of .200.

Are the A’s good? No, of course not. But Anderson is ready to get blown up, and Spence has done nothing this year to indicate the same. The A’s at plus-money are the play.

Play 3: Kansas City Royals vs. Miami Marlins — Royals -1.5 (Even) FanDuel

This is a perfect storm-like scenario for the hometown Royals tonight.

For one, they’re sending Seth Lugo to the hill, who is simply going about his business so far this year. A 20.7 K%, a 5.4 BB%. Nothing fancy there, just workmanlike.

Meanwhile, batters are barely doing anything when they hit the ball against Lugo, with a .125 ISO and .282 wOBA against him. And the numbers aren’t fluky, with a .271 BABIP, a 7.4% barrel rate, and a 32% hard hit rate.

Spectacular? Nope. Good enough? Usually.

And the Marlins lineup he’s facing tonight is pretty meh in general, ranking 27th in ISO and 28th in wOBA against righties this year.

Lugo, on paper, looks ready to take care of business tonight.

Meanwhile, the Royals lineup looks like a smash against Marlins righty Yonny Chirinos, who depends on a sinker/slider combo to get by.

But the Royals lineup is particularly well-suited against this, with five batters sporting ISOs north of .158 against sliders over the last two years — and this doesn’t include Bobby Witt.

All told, Lugo looks likely to be able to keep the Marlins bats off-balance, and the Royals should be able to get to Chirinos.

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