New Study Reveals How Quickly Trump Would Destroy Social Security
A new analysis on the future of Social Security suggests that Donald Trump’s proposed policies for strengthening the program wouldn’t just be ineffective—they would actually destroy it.
A report published Monday by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Government, a nonpartisan public policy think tank, found that Trump’s pitches would add to the program’s cash deficit by roughly $2.3 trillion, quicken the downfall of the retirement benefit by as much as three years, and could force higher taxes in the long run in an effort to salvage the late-age payouts.
Trump’s campaign promises add up to disaster for the nearly century-old program They include calling for an end to the taxation of overtime pay, tips, and Social Security benefits, which the organization noted would reduce revenue streams, and promising to impose massive tariffs on imports (as high as 2000 percent on foreign cars), which the committee forecast would drastically increase inflation or reduce payroll. But even policies that, on their face, seem as though they wouldn’t impact Social Security—such as Trump’s massive deportation program—would also capsize the retirement benefit by reducing the number of immigrant workers paying into the program’s trust funds.
All in all, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Government found that ending income taxation of Social Security benefits would cost $950 billion, cutting taxes on tips and overtime pay would cost $900 billion, and changes to tariffs and immigration would cost $400 billion.
Under current law, Social Security is predicted to reach insolvency by 2034. Once that happens, Social Security will have to reduce spending, cutting as much as 23 percent—approximately $16,500 in annual benefits for a dual-income couple. But Trump’s proposals would expedite that, pushing insolvency to 2031, and could cost the average couple somewhere between 29 and 36 percent “depending on the scenario,” according to the report.
Saving the program, especially from the brink of Trump’s promises, would decimate payouts for current as well as future retirees, forcing the program to either cut benefits by one-third or increase “all current law taxes by roughly one-half.”
Trump’s solutions for salvaging Social Security won’t inspire the kind of cash flow he promises. The Republican presidential nominee has promised to delay the benefit’s shortfall by bolstering the oil and gas industry and growing the economy. But, as the committee noted, increased energy exploration is unlikely to have a meaningful effect, “even if the gains were deposited into the trust fund,” and saving the program through the economy would require “unrealistically fast economic growth.”
