Russia’s Steel Industry on the Brink? Severstal Warns of Potential Shutdowns

Steel demand in Russia is heading into rough terrainand Severstal (SVJTY) is waving a red flag. CEO Alexander Shevelev told Rossiya-24 that some production lines may need to shut down to balance oversupply as domestic consumption could drop 10% this year, down to 39 million tons. That’s a steep declinecomparable to the full-year appetite of some entire industries. With steel prices sitting at multi-year lows and the strong ruble choking exports, many producers are now walking a fine line between breakeven and red ink.

This isn’t just a sector storyit’s a window into the wider slowdown rippling through Russia’s economy. Last year’s rate hikes to tame inflation are still casting a long shadow. The Economy Ministry is now warning of recession risks, and exporters are getting squeezed by a ruble that’s surged nearly 23% since 2023. At a current rate of 78.72 per dollar, the ruble is far from the 90100 range Shevelev believes would better support trade. That FX pressure is compounding pain for commodity sellers across oil, steel, and beyond.

Despite the storm clouds, Severstal isn’t pulling the plug just yet. Shevelev said the company aims to keep both production and investment plans on trackthough he didn’t rule out deeper cuts if things worsen. Any shift in monetary policy could offer some breathing room, but for now, investors should stay alert. Russia’s steelmakers may be entering a new phase of survival modewhere efficiency, cost control, and macro resilience will separate the winners from the rest.

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.