Russia’s ‘Zapad’ drill has Europe on edge about low-key attacks

WARSAW, Poland — As Russia and Belarus launch the “Zapad 2025” joint military drill this month, eyeing buildups of military forces along NATO’s eastern borders and direct simulations of attacks on Poland and the Baltic States, the four Eastern European allies are gearing up for the drills of their own in anticipation of low-intensity attacks against their infrastructure.

Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland plan to respond by holding their own training for some 40,000 troops to mirror “Zapad 2025.”

This year’s edition of the exercise is scheduled for Sept. 12-16. Russia used the previous “Zapad,” or “West” in Russian, training in September 2021 to deploy the forces that eventually invaded Ukraine in February the following year.

The joint exercise usually takes place every two years, but the Kremlin decided to cancel the 2023 edition as Russia was struggling to source troops and gear for its aggression against Ukraine. While Moscow’s military capacities continue to be largely tied up in the ongoing invasion, “Zapad 2025” is expected to comprise nuclear weapons and Russian-made hypersonic missiles.

In Lithuania, which shares a border with both Belarus and Russia, the upcoming drills have put the country’s security apparatus on high alert, according to the Lithuanian Ministry of National Defence.

“This year, up to 30,000 troops are expected to participate,“ the ministry told Defense News in a statement. “Around 6,000–8,000 will be stationed in Belarus, with several thousand in Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave. Despite rumors of larger forces, Lithuanian intelligence reports no such increase.”

The Baltic nation’s “military, alongside NATO allies, is closely monitoring the situation and remains fully prepared to respond if necessary,” the Lithuanian ministry said. “Lithuania will conduct its own exercises simultaneously, with allied support to ensure national security.”

Gen. Raimundas Vaikšnoras, the Lithuanian chief of defense, has announced that during “Zapad 2025” the three Baltic States will join forces with Poland to respond by launching an exercise for around 40,000 allied troops in the region.

“The Lithuanian contingent, without speculating too much on numbers, will be around 10,000, plus another 6,000 or so from our allies. And this applies not only on land, but also at sea and in the air,” Vaikšnoras told local broadcaster LRT.

The general said that, “based on what is planned as of today, the Baltic states plus Poland will have more moving parts, personnel and other capabilities than what we can observe through reconnaissance platforms” with regards to “Zapad 2025.”

Poland, the largest ally in the region which borders Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad, is working with its NATO partners to ensure monitoring of the forthcoming exercises, but also acting within the framework of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), according to the country’s Ministry of National Defence.

“The upcoming ‘Zapad 2025’ exercises by Russia and Belarus, in the context of the ongoing war against Ukraine, illustrate further aggressive behavior and deepening cooperation between the two countries,” a spokesperson for the Polish ministry told Defense News.

Warsaw considers the risk of provocations by Moscow and Minsk will rise during “Zapad 2025.” These could involve cyberattacks against allies, GPS jamming targeting NATO infrastructure, or small-scale military incidents designed to test Poland’s capacity to respond, according to the ministry’s representative.

Last month, Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin told the regime’s official press agency BelTA the forthcoming training will partly focus on operating nuclear arms and the intermediate-range Oreshnik ballistic missile. The Russian military uses the latter weapon in its attacks on Ukraine.

“Certainly, within the framework of the ‘Zapad’ exercise together with Russian colleagues we will practice matters of planning to use this kind of weapons,” Khrenin said.

As Belarus’s involvement in the Russian war against Ukraine has pushed Minsk towards an even closer military cooperation with Moscow, in August 2022, Belarusian dictator Aleksander Lukashenko announced Russia upgraded his country’s fighter jets to allow them to carry tactical atomic weapons. Moscow has also agreed to transfer to Minsk the Iskander-M tactical missile systems which can use both ballistic and cruise missiles in conventional and nuclear variants.

Poland’s “Armed Forces are constantly monitoring all military activities by neighboring countries and are prepared to respond appropriately to any possible security threats arising from such activities,” the Polish ministry spokesperson said.