Starmer needs more than anti-racist soundbites to stop Farage
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The faintest scintilla of a silver lining emerged for Labour from its shattering defeat in a Welsh by-election last week — evidence that an anti-Reform UK front could be mobilised to defeat Nigel Farage.
It was no help in Wales, where voters had a well-established left alternative in the nationalist Plaid Cymru, and the same may be true for Scotland. But in England, home to 84 per cent of parliamentary seats, there may be grounds for hope. It’s true that right now Sir Keir Starmer is losing support to both the Liberal Democrats and the newly confident Greens. But if stopping Reform is the imperative for the left, then Labour is their only realistic option.
Perhaps this hope, and growing internal pressure to shift left, inspired the unusually muscular Labour response to the Reform MP who complained that “it drives me mad” to see adverts “full of” Black or Asian people — words even Farage denounced as “ugly”. Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, is also having to row back on the details of her party’s policy, which would currently retrospectively deport any migrant with indefinite leave to remain who claims benefits — even a pension.
This pushback is long overdue. A year ago it seemed unimaginable that mainstream parties, even Reform, would be advocating deportations of law-abiding legal migrants. Those on the left have watched in despair as Labour’s fear of the issue emboldened Farage and right-wing Conservatives to push the boundaries of legitimate discourse.
Inflammatory rhetoric adds to an increasingly hostile environment. Reform routinely depicts asylum seekers as potential sex offenders. Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, lamented not seeing “another white face” in an area in Birmingham. Katie Lam, a Tory rising star, says thousands of lawful migrants must go home to ensure “a mostly . . . culturally coherent” society.
Asylum and migration will remain hot issues. In recent days we have seen the accidental release of a convicted sex offender scheduled for deportation, the charging of an Afghan refugee over a fatal stabbing and the ongoing furore over grooming gangs. But if Labour is ready to push back more assertively it might increase unease about Reform and re-establish some red lines.
It may also help Labour be that anti-Reform option. As currently constituted, the Tories don’t seem to fancy the job and there are enough left-leaning voters for one to be viable. A YouGov poll shows combined Labour, Lib Dem and Green support at 48 per cent, though many on the left detest Starmer, who has disappointed them on a range of issues from child poverty to Gaza.
But this all hangs on a presumption that stopping Farage is the primary motivation for voters. And that is a problem. The constant message from voters since 2016 is that things must change. Labour still appears to represent a failing status quo. Across the west, voters seeking change are being wooed by leaders of conviction and charisma.
Polling for the pro-Labour New Britain Project shows voters are sceptical of Starmer’s commitment to their values even when he says things they agree with, whereas they see Farage as a man of strong conviction.
For all its belated muscularity on race and migration, that is not the winning card. If Labour is to ensure voters’ key motivation is stopping Reform rather than ousting them, the core issues are the economy and public services.
Starmer and chancellor Rachel Reeves need to convince voters that they have a credible economic plan. Yet the run-in to next month’s Budget is all about tax rises. A clear communications strategy is in place. Labour is laying the groundwork for tax rises — possibly even a manifesto-breaching increase in income tax rate — by playing up the damage done by Brexit and years of low productivity. The problem is voters now view Starmer and Reeves as unconvincing messengers.
But it is the failure so far to find and prosecute a cogent growth strategy, one to raise living standards and offer better services and a fairer society, that is at the root of Labour’s problems. What strategy there is — infrastructure investment, planning reform, reducing regulations and betting heavily on artificial intelligence and clean energy — is counterbalanced by more employment regulations, throttled back immigration, caution over unpicking Brexit and high business taxes in last year’s Budget. Fairly or not, tax rises can also be painted as a sign of failure.
And Reform, mindful of the need to broaden its appeal and credibility, is also switching attention to the economy and the UK’s failing bureaucracy. Farage will use a speech next week to argue that Britain must work harder, lamenting the overemphasis on work-life balance which he claims is damaging entrepreneurial spirit and inhibiting productivity. This macho message may not land with young families who value work-life balance, but it speaks to his relentless message that the status quo will not do.
Demonstrating economic progress is Labour’s best hope. But the lack of a compelling and convincing economic argument and the absence of persuasive communicators are also its weakness.
The Welsh result suggests voters can be galvanised to block Reform. Hubris has led to hardline migration policies that could be a vulnerability. But if by the next election voters still feel the country is not well run, Starmer should not count on stopping Farage being their political priority.
