STC dominance transforms Yemen, hints at new regional openings for Israel

The STC’s growing power in southern Yemen, while unlikely to mitigate Houthi terrorism, could gift Israel a key ally in the region, particularly if an independent south joins the Abraham Accords.

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) in Yemen launched a military offensive across the south of the country on December 2, taking control of the oil and resource-rich Hadramout Governorate, as well as other parts of the region, including Aden, by Monday.

This major power shift within Yemen, which splintered into several sections during the civil war, but where frontlines remained relatively stable until this past week, could cause widespread regional ramifications.

In 2022, the STC joined forces with the Saudi-backed, internationally recognized anti-Houthi government based in Aden, with STC President Aidarus al-Zoubaidi appointed as Vice President of the Presidential Leadership Council. However, tensions remained as STC were more separatist in their goals, while Saudi-backed factions wished to regain sovereignty over the whole of Yemen, including Houthi-controlled territories in the north.

STC officials in Aden announced that other PLC leaders, including PLC President Rashad al-Alimi, escaped to Riyadh before STC forces entered the historic capital of the defunct People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen).

Senior STC official Amr al-Bidh told Reuters that this was despite the STC ordering them to remain.

Saudi Arabia, for its part, has hosted PLC officials, with the Saudi Press Agency confirming that the Foreign Ministry’s director-general met with the Yemeni consul general in Jeddah on Monday.

Further, in a trilateral meeting with Iran and China, the three countries “reaffirmed their support for a comprehensive political solution,” SPA reported on Tuesday.

UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg met with Saudi, UAE, and UN Security Council representatives in Riyadh on Tuesday, calling for de-escalation through dialogue and calling on all actors to exercise restraint.

Nevertheless, the STC’s takeover will reduce Saudi influence in Yemen. So far, tensions do not appear to have emerged between Saudi Arabia and the UAE over the events, and the STC is attempting to mitigate the risks posed by this, appeasing the Saudis.

On Tuesday, Zubaidi held a meeting with STC leaders praising the “great support” provided by the Saudi and UAE-led anti-Houthi coalition, and the efforts the two Arab powerhouses took “that contributed to establishing security and stability.”

A UAE official told Reuters on Monday its position on Yemen “is in line with Saudi Arabia in supporting a political process.”

Thus, the relations between the two most influential Sunni countries in the region appear to remain stable, at least in the short term. Still, a loss of Saudi influence in southern Yemen is liable to cause future tensions.

Houthis unlikely to be weakened by STC’s growth, independent South Yemen

Yemen’s Houthis are militarily largely unaffected by this change. To the terrorists based in northern Yemen, it makes little difference in the ongoing civil war whether they are fighting against Saudi-backed or UAE-backed forces, or other tribal or jihadist elements present in southern Yemen.

However, a key part of deterring and weakening the Houthis’ military has been Saudi airstrikes against their infrastructure, especially in their capital, Sanaa. With weakened Saudi influence and motivation in the south, Riyadh may lower its priorities regarding an attack on the Houthis.

The Houthis are also not particularly susceptible to a conventional military invasion, as their positions are defended by high mountain ranges, often traversable by a single route, which makes them easily defensible against a potential STC push into the north.

Undersecretary of the Houthis’ Information Ministry, Mohammad Mansour, told Beirut-based Houthis-run Almasirah TV that the STC’s takeover will lead to “further chaos and division,” and blamed both the UAE and Saudi Arabia to differing degrees.

“The Arab Zionists wanted to prevent the raising of the Yemeni flag,” Mansour said, affirming his belief that any “future escalation” would be a US-Israeli-British action, even if fought by “proxy forces” based out of Yemen.

STC to push for independent South Yemen?

Local reports have indicated that the STC, which adopted the defunct national flag of South Yemen, has erected that flag on government and official buildings across the region. Further, STC’s official social media appears to show rallies across the region of supporters calling for an independent South Yemen state.

In addition, Zubaidi, at Monday’s STC meeting, affirmed that “the next phase will be one of intensive work to build the institutions of the future South Arabian state.”

However, this does not mean an independent South Yemen is around the corner, as the STC greatly needs to stabilize its control over the territory, including the removal of the remnant al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) terrorists, largely operating in Hadramout, as well as its relations with regional and international partners, with the goal of seeking legitimacy as the internationally recognized government.

This may be why the STC sought to keep Alimi and other PLC leaders in Aden, and their flight to Riyadh may weaken the STC’s legitimacy in the eyes of its partners.

The oil-rich area, however, along with the UAE, and likely soon-to-grow international support, may lead to a future South Yemen state in the short-to-medium term.

Opportunities for Israel, including oil, Abraham Accords expansion

Such developments are unlikely to directly affect Israel vis-a-vis Houthi terrorism, including launching ballistic missiles and attacking vessels in the Red Sea, as the Iran-backed terrorist maintain the same amount of control as before.

However, Zubaidi, while attending the UN General Assembly in September, told Abu Dhabi’s state-owned outlet The National that an independent South Yemen would join the Abraham Accords and establish relations with Israel.

Before the Israel-Hamas War started, the STC was “advancing towards joining the Abraham Accords,” he said in September. “When we have our southern state, we will make our own decisions, and I believe we will be part of these accords,” he added, while noting this may be contingent on an independent Palestinian state being established.

If South Yemen is declared, it could therefore lead to Israel gaining a key ally in the region, in a strategic position to weaken Iran’s influence in the Gulf of Aden and against the Houthis, as well as improve Israel’s resource ties with Arabian partners given southern Yemen’s rich supply of natural resources, particularly oil, gas, and minerals.