The 2016 Election Reshaped the Supreme Court. So Will 2024.

This term particularly demonstrated the court’s willingness to reshape American governance. There were a disproportionately high number of 6–3 decisions this spring and summer, indicating a court often fragmented on the role of the federal government in American life, although not all of those fell neatly along ideological lines. Still, while the three liberal justices and the president scored a handful of victories—the court ruled in favor of allowing access to abortion medication and emergency abortion procedures, and upheld a law barring domestic abusers from owning firearms, among other decisions—the session will be remembered for rulings that diminished the power of federal agencies to set regulatory policy, lengthened the period of time to bring a legal challenge against an agency’s actions, and weakened regulatory agencies’ enforcement capabilities.

Collectively, and especially in the ruling that overturned the doctrine of Chevron deference, which required courts to defer to reasonable legislative interpretation by regulatory agencies, the decisions have limited agencies’ independence and reach while empowering courts. “In every sphere of current or future federal regulation, expect courts from now on to play a commanding role,” liberal Justice Elena Kagan wrote in her dissent against overturning Chevron. “It is a role this court has now claimed for itself, as well as other judges.”

Trump’s surprising 2016 victory set this up by giving him the rare opportunity to nominate three justices to the court, each confirmed by a Republican-controlled Senate. This was in large part a result of planning by conservative judicial networks, Perryman said, which “have sought to shape the court, using political actors to do so.” The Judicial Crisis Network, for example, helped fund a campaign at the end of the Obama presidency to keep the seat vacated by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia open until the election—denying Obama his nomination, and allowing Trump to name Neil Gorsuch as the conservative jurist’s successor. The Federalist Society, a conservative legal organization led by judicial activist Leonard Leo, has also had an outsize role in influencing modern jurists on every level of the federal bench.