The success of Trump’s mid-decade redistricting strategy hinges on court action

Four months into the redistricting fight, President Trump’s push to carve out more GOP‑friendly seats has slipped into legal limbo, raising the chance that Democrats could end up with the upper hand.

For now, the scoreboard is mixed: Republicans carved out as many as nine new seats, while Democrats have picked up six, one of those thanks to a surprise court ruling.

But the numbers aren’t set in stone. 

With midterm elections looming, Mr. Trump is pressing red‑state lawmakers to press their advantage with new maps, and Democrats are doing the same in blue states. 

On top of that, a stack of lawsuits must be sorted out.

The GOP took a big hit this month when a federal court tossed out the new map Texas lawmakers approved over the summer — a plan that would have given Republicans five more seats. The court ordered the state back to its 2021 maps. Texas appealed, and Justice Samuel Alito stepped in to freeze the ruling while the Supreme Court weighs the case.

Another question mark is how the Supreme Court will handle a voting rights case that could decide how much states can use race to address discrimination in congressional and state legislative district maps.

Mr. Trump launched the mid-decade redistricting effort earlier in the year, hoping to block Democrats from flipping the House in an election cycle that usually punishes the party in power. 

Right now, House Republicans are clinging to a razor‑thin 219–214 majority. Losing the majority would all but end Mr. Trump’s legislative agenda and likely pit him against Democrat-led investigations and probably articles of impeachment.

Democrats, fresh off big wins in Virginia and New Jersey, are looking to change the math next week in Tennessee, where they hope for an upset in a special election Tuesday in the 7th Congressional District. 

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s announcement that she’ll step down in January only adds to the GOP’s headaches by further eroding its thin House majority.

Meanwhile, the next big showdown in the redistricting fight could be in Virginia, where Democrats already hold six of the state’s 11 congressional seats.

The legislature, now under Democratic control, has kicked off a process to ask voters whether they want to follow California’s lead and adopt a new congressional map that might net Democrats up to three more seats.

Republicans are banking on the courts to block the move after a bruising election cycle that saw Virginia Democrats sweep statewide races and tighten their grip on the General Assembly.

State Senate Majority Leader Scott Surovell said Democrats haven’t settled on a map yet, but they’re ready to press forward if Republicans keep redrawing aggressively elsewhere.

“Our caucus will continue to look at what’s happening around the rest of the country,” Mr. Surovell told The Washington Times. “If we are going to do it, we also have to figure out an election calendar because there are filing deadlines that will be impacted and a primary date that will be impacted.”

The redistricting fight traces back to Texas, where Gov. Greg Abbott and GOP lawmakers broke tradition by redrawing mid‑decade, a move that could have handed Republicans five more seats.

Democrats, stuck in the minority, couldn’t stop it — but their two‑week walkout drew national attention and sparked countermoves in other states. 

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom and his Democrats pushed through a referendum letting the legislature replace maps drawn by an independent commission with more partisan lines, aiming to blunt Texas gains.

Elsewhere, Republicans kept an edge. 

Missouri and North Carolina approved new maps that likely give the GOP an extra seat in each state. Ohio followed through on its scheduled redraw, making two Democratic seats more competitive.

Democrats, meanwhile, scored a win in Utah when a federal judge tossed out GOP‑drawn maps, opening the door for them to pick up another seat.

Mr. Trump hoped for more victories in Kansas and Indiana, but those efforts stalled as Republicans failed to unite behind the plan.

Frustrated, Mr. Trump has threatened to back primary challengers against Indiana’s Senate GOP leaders who have been unable to rally support for redistricting.

In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, signaled little appetite for a redraw in his deep‑blue state, especially with Indiana stalled.

Whether these incremental gains and losses will matter in the fight for the House remains to be seen.

History suggests the president’s party usually struggles in its first midterm. In 2010, Republicans flipped 63 seats under President Obama. In 2018, Democrats rode anti‑Trump sentiment to a 40‑seat gain.

J. Miles Coleman of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics said the bigger question is whether some of the newly drawn districts will perform as expected. 

“Gerrymandering is so scientific these days, and mappers can generate such precise plans that the risk of ‘dummymanders’ seems to be lower today,” he said. “To me, a bigger potential for GOP disappointment would be that some seats intended to flip red might not.”

“Specifically, I think some of the South Texas districts were redrawn with the idea that Trump’s strong numbers with Latinos would be a ‘new normal,’” he said. “In Virginia and New Jersey, we saw several heavily Latino areas snap back to Democrats.”