The Violence of 2024 Increasingly Recalls 1968

History may not repeat itself, but there are certain patterns that could portend future conflict. Suzanne Mettler, a political science professor at Cornell University, identified key threats to democracy itself present in previous eras of political upheaval: high partisan polarization, conflict over who could be considered a “real” citizen, economic inequality, and increased concentration of power in the executive.

“Today, for the first time, we have all four threats present at once,” said Mettler, who recently co-authored a book on recurring perils facing democracy. She continued that the current political era has also seen democratic norms undermined, as the Republican Party in particular has questioned the legitimacy of Democrats’ ability to win—most significantly with Trump’s refusal to acknowledge that he lost the 2020 election. Even before then, Trump and his supporters viewed his 2016 rival, Hillary Clinton, as a criminal; chants of “Lock her up,” referring to Clinton, were common at Trump rallies.

Political polarization in the United States has been on the rise for decades, and members of Congress have veered away from the ideological center, particularly on the right. Under these conditions, political violence may not be inevitable, but it is certainly more likely.